Royals Pains and Trades, Misconceptions, and a Diamond in the Rough
When
the Kansas City Royals released Ryan Braun on
November 17th, I thought of a lot of things:
“That’s unfair!” “Jeez Dayton,
you have done it again”, and finally “Who will be the brilliant GM who signs
this minor league free agent?” Since
Braun has been a FA for less than a week, he hasn’t been signed yet, but any GM
should take a look at Braun. I wouldn’t
say that he would be my pick for the 2009 Comeback Player of the Year (Nelson
Cruz anyone?), but Braun is an obvious guy who could turn out to be a diamond
in the rough. But hey, this wouldn’t be
the first time I have seemingly
started blabbing
away about an unknown little pitcher.
Lets
take a look at Braun’s career statistics shall we? A 1.06 ERA in AAA? Only Jason
Bulger can beat that. The catch is
that he did what he did in 2007, and missed all of 2008 due to undergoing right
elbow surgery. Maybe he should look
into Dr. Mike
Marshall’s school.
Anyway,
after dominating in Omaha to start 2007, Braun got called up to the Royals and
struggled, displaying a 6.64 ERA in 26 games.
He was 26 then, but now he’s 28 and it’s time for him to prove to
everyone in baseball that he is not a Four-A player. I believe Braun will be a good pitcher next year, and I
don’t see any reason why Braun cannot bring a little of his dominance from the
minors to the bigs. I’m preparing to
applaud the GM who signs Braun. I may
be at a crossroads though, considering I have bashed so many GMs on this blog
before (ex.
ex.
ex.).
I
really hope I am not jinxing Ryan. What
if nobody signs him? I guess he will
just sign with an independent team and I’ll probably just praise the GM of that
team.
Speaking
of independent ball, it makes me sick when people refer to non-affiliated
baseball as “minor league baseball”.
It’s not minor league baseball! Minor
league baseball is when that team is affiliated with a major league
franchise. Independent baseball
is a professional league (where players get paid), but is non-affiliated.
Another
misconception about independent baseball is that it is at a lower level than
the lowest level of the minor leagues.
That’s not true at all. Take Matt LeCroy
for example. He played in the major
leagues for eight years, and was an important part of the Twins teams between
2002 and 2005. But last year he played
for the non-affiliated Lancaster Barnstormers.
Does that mean he isn’t good enough to play rookie ball? No.
The Barnstormers pay much better than what a team will offer a free
agent to play in Double-A and if you watch a ‘Stormers game it be at a quality
better than that of AA.
I have to
imagine LeCroy didn’t get any teams that could offer him a roster spot in AAA,
so he signed with Lancaster. The
Barnstormers of course, are part of the Atlantic League, the premier
independent league in the country.
Leagues like the United League could be considered lower than rookie
ball but that is a rare case. Most
independent leagues hold a higher quality of baseball.
And
while we are on the case of misconceptions, it grinds my gears when people
don’t distinguish Low-A ball, A ball, and High-A ball. Most people are aware that they exist, but
just don’t distinguish them when writing or talking. The difference between Class-A Short Season, and Class A Advanced
is huge. Players who are in Class-A
Short Season generally are players that were drafted that same year out of
college. Players in Class A and High A
are usually in their first or second full professional season.
Man,
how did an entry that started out about Ryan Braun end up being about minor
league class level distinguishers?
Well,
while I’m discussing the Royals, I might as well give my take on the Coco Crisp/Ramon Ramirez
trade. Do you want it simple? I hate for KC, love it for Boston. A little more analysis? Dayton Moore has traded yet another great
and young reliever for another so-so position player that is just barley good
enough to be a starter.
The
Royals’ bullpen will suffer big time, and as result will look like this:
Joakim Soria
(CL)
Ron Mahay (They
need to trade him NOW)
gotta
read this
post)
That’s
a really poor ‘pen, and it includes Ron Mahay who should be traded for
prospects in my opinion. Plus, if you
noticed, those are only six pitchers.
Who will the seventh be? I don’t
know; maybe Jimmy
Gobble (8.81 ERA), Joel
Peralta (5.98), or possibly Matt
Wright (5.47 ERA in AAA). The
vastly over paid Kyle
Farnsworth will be added in their if he passes his physical. Maybe the strong 2008 Wilmington bullpen (Hartsock, Swaggerty, De La Vara
{who has been taken in the Rule 5 draft}, Holland, Nicoll) will
hold some answers to the Royals’ bullpen pains. They just need more relievers.
At
least the Royals have players to trade.
Personally, if I took over the Royals right now I’d attempt to flip over
Mike Jacobs
and Coco Crisp to another team. But
seeing how that won’t happen, the Royals probably are looking to trade Jose Guillen,
Mark Teahen,
and at least one of their young first basemen.
I’ve enamored enough about Kila Ka’aihue
in this
post, but if the Royals are keeping onto Jacobs then they can’t hold on to
both Ka’aihue and Butler. One of them has to go. Oh yeah, and there’s that guy who had 29
homers and a .363 OBP this year (111 G in AAA, 20 G in MLB), Ryan Shealy.
Trading
Teahen and Guillen will be a tough task because there are no perfect fits. Teahen makes sense for a team that has a
lack of depth at third base and right field. The Mariners make the most sense, but that doesn’t mean much. Even if they trade Ichiro and Adrian Beltre, they have Wladimir Balentien and Michael Wilson to join Franklin Gutierrez in the outfield, with Michael Saunders waiting in the wings. It wouldn’t hurt young third baseman Matt Tuiasosopo to play another year at AAA in which case Teahen could play third base next year for the M’s, but it is obvious Seattle doesn’t need him.
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New reports are suggesting
that the Cubs are offering Mike Fontenot
and Sean
Marshall for Teahen. It’s just in
the rumor phase, but I really like it for both teams. Fontenot would be more valuable to a club that can let him start
unlike the Cubs. Marshall has never had
a consistent role with the Cubs even though he has proven he is a reliable,
steady pitcher. Although I think
Marshall is more valuable as a starter, the Royals would love to have him in
the bullpen. Their rotation is pretty
set anyways, with Zack Greinke,
Gil Meche, Brian
Bannister, Kyle
Davies, and Luke Hochevar. Although if Bannister and Hochevar bring
their 2008 struggles into next season, they’ll probably find themselves in
Omaha. I’m not sure Teahen is the type
of player the Cubs need in order to find that next level, but he is a young
affordable who may benefit from escaping a pitcher’s park like Kauffman
Stadium. However, despite his injuries, Milton Bradley is the best fit for the Cubs, not Mark Teahen.
As far Jose Guillen, I
have know idea where he could go.
People are saying the Mets are an option. That could be true, but you could say any starting OF would be a
good fit for the Mets. Guillen is not
that great of hitter, as he probably will never hit 30 home runs again, and
struggles to keep his OBP above .300.
Dayton Moore may find a taker who is willing to give up a mid-level
prospect but Guillen isn’t the player that can turn a team around. In fact, he has the ability to do the exact
opposite with his attitude and occasional fights with upper management.
I feel bad for Royals fans, they have had dumb management, a lousy team, but at least they have one of the most underrated ballparks in the country:
What’s a Pitching-Seeking GM To Do?
Japanese
hurler Junichi
Tazawa is about to announce he has signed with the Boston Red Sox.
Although it’s not the first thing that comes
to mind, the Tazawa signing really shows just how large Daisuke Matsuzaka’s
presence is in Japan. Tazawa chose the
Red Sox over the Texas Rangers who reportedly offered over one million dollars
more than Boston.
Jon
Daniels must be feeling pretty bad.
He’s been criticized ever since Tom
Hicks hired him four years ago, for not acquiring enough pitching. And when Daniels has spent money it has for
the most part a bad investment.
Kevin
Millwood was a bust, although if he can pitch well into July of next year,
the Texas may be able to trade him for some prospects. Vicente Padilla
hasn’t been that bad, but it still was a bad signing considering what the
Rangers thought Padilla would accomplish with them. Daniels has also traded away young pitchers
like Armando
Galarraga, John
Danks and Chris
Young (who was packaged with Adrian Gonzalez). He also of course traded away Edinson
Volquez but that’s another story. The
“Edinson Volquez or Josh Hamilton” argument will go on for a long time.
I
think Jon Daniels deserves to be criticized because he has made a lot of
obvious bad trades and signings but if you look closely, you’ll figure out
Daniels had a sort of “revelation” in the 2006-2007 offseason. It seems all of Daniels moves before 2007 season
were bad, but suddenly he figured something out and has gone on to make
splendid deals like trading away Mark Teixeira and Eric Gagne (to the Red Sox).
Now
Daniels has “GM momentum” swinging his way, but he still can’t catch a break
with pitching. It’s not uncommon for
players to accept a slightly lower salary to play for the team they prefer. But in most cases it is a veteran player
looking to sign the last contract of their career before retiring. That is why Tazawa is an outlier. He’s only
22 years old, and yet he is already basing his contract options on
preference. I wonder how much extra money
Texas would have needed to offer to get Tazawa.
In the end, the teams have to remember he is just a 22 year old pitcher
who has only spent one year in professional baseball.
You
have to admit he is unique. He asked the
teams of the NPB (Japan’s MLB equivalent) not to draft him so he could play for
Nippon Oil of an independent league in Japan (the same league female
side-arming knuckleballer Eri Yoshida plays for).
Now Tazawa is like any other amateur player from Mexico, Venezuela, or
the Dominican Republic or any other country that is not eligible for the
draft. I am not sure about the
independent league Tazawa played in, but the reports are that he is at least
ready for Double-A. I know Theo Epstein
would not pay Tazawa so much ($6 mil) if he wasn’t as ready for the majors
than, lets’ say Michael Bowden.
For
a 22 year-old to take a lesser contract to play for his preferred team is
gutsy, but then again, this is why he chose to skip the Nippon Baseball
draft. He wanted to experience the MLB
without having a NBL
team involved in the deal. And there
is no better way to experience Major League Baseball than playing on one of
America’s most successful baseball franchises and having the opportunity to
play with his hero Dice-K and fellow countryman Hideki Okajima. He’ll be able to experience being a part of
Red Sox Nation and soak in all of it’s glory:
I
still feel sorry Jon Daniels. Even if Kaz Fukumori
had turned into the next Takashi Saito
or Kazuhiro
Sasaki, Texas just didn’t have the extra goods to get Tazawa. However, there is a silver lining. Adding Tazawa to the pitching mix makes it
more likely Theo Epstein will be willing to deal prospects like Michael Bowden
or Nick Hagadone
(who is much further down the road) to the Rangers for Gerald Laird
or Jarrod
Saltalamacchia. Personally, if I was
the Red Sox I wouldn’t make a deal for a Rangers catcher because they can just
sign Toby Hall
and David Ross. Boston fans may want a big name they already
know, but a combination of George
Kottaras, Dusty
Brown, Toby Hall, and David Ross is a solid, less expensive option. If Kottatas or Brown can do what they did at
AAA this year, then the Red Sox have two starting-worthy catchers. If they both struggle then the Red Sox can
turn to a combo of a platoon of David Ross, who had .793 OPS against righties,
and Toby Hall who had a .920 OPS against lefties. There really is no need to spend a bunch of
money on a catcher when the Red Sox need to use most, if not all of their money
on Mark Teixeira because they are by far the best
and most likely fit for him. Plus,
judging from this,
the Red Sox won’t have much extra money to spend this off-season.
Jon
Daniels can console in the fact that he has put together a farm system that has
a bunch of big pitching prospects like Neftali Feliz,
Blave Beavan,
Kasey Kiker,
Michael Main,
and Derek
Holland. The system also holds some lesser-name prospects like Tommy Hunter,
Kennil Gomez,
Michael
Ballard, Beau
Jones, and Doug
Mathis who could develop into successful big league starters.
That’s
it for now, but I’d like to round out my entry by a little piece of trivia:
Which
player had these statistics in 2008 when you combine his minor league, major
league, and winter league numbers together?
G AB OBP HR RBI SB TB SLG OPS 149 556 .431 51 151 28 385 .692 1.123
–1 game in Rookie Ball
– 102 games in Triple-A
– 31 games in the Majors
–14 games in the Dominican Winter League
The
answer? This guy.
TTPs for the Nationals
Nationals trade Austin Kearns to the Phillies for LHP Moises Melendez
There are
a lot of “ifs” in this trade. This deal
only makes sense if the Phillies fail to re-sign Pat Burrell, and if
Washington eats up most, if not all, of Kearns’ salary for next year (last year of his contract). Kearns is
owed $8 million next year, about six million more than he is worth.
If
the Nationals are willing to pay that six million, then it makes sense for the
Phillies, with their need of right-handed outfielders, to acquire Kearns as
part of the solution to Burrell leaving.
I am not saying that Kearns is worthy of being the Phillies starting
left fielder. He’s only as good as
a fourth outfielder, but he is a good guy to provide power off the bench, and be a
back-up in case of injury.
Any
team interested in acquiring Kearns (actually Detroit and Toronto are
the others I can think of) should understand they have all the leverage in the
world. The Nationals need to get rid of
Kearns no matter how much salary they have to eat, and no matter how bad a
prospect they get. The Nats have Roger
Bernadina, Lastings
Milledge, and Elijah Dukes
set to start with Willie Harris,
Mike Daniel,
and Wily Mo
Pena behind them. Kearns doesn’t
deserve to be in AAA, but he has no place with the Nationals.
Like
I said, the Nationals hardly have any leverage even though they have the player
with the bigger name. Therefore they have to
take it easy on their asking price. The
important negotiation process will not be what prospect they get, but rather
how much they will pay of Kearns’ salary.
I think 75% is enough. Obviously
the more money the Nationals eat, the better prospect they get but they can’t
get carried away. Moises
Melendez is not trash. True, he’s
not a high profile prospect (like Kearns once was) and probably projects as
a middle reliever or lefty specialist, but hey, that’s the type of pitcher the
Nats need more of. Melendez wasn’t used
as a lefty specialist this year in Class-A Lakewood, but being a left-handed
middle reliever without dominating stuff makes it a likely future
scenario. Melendez would go to Potomac
(A+), and maybe get a taste of Double-A before the season ends.
No
matter how much salary they he will have to eat, Jim Bowden (who apparently
thinks he a Jedi)
needs to trade Kearns. End of
story. I hope Jimmy B can put Kearns’ “glory“
years with the Reds behind him, and move on to younger, more talented, less
expensive pastures.
Rockies trade 1B Joe Koshansky to the Nationals for RHP Saul Rivera
It’s
very sad (Saul
is my favorite player), but the truth is, if this deal were made, it would
benefit both teams.
Saul is extremely
nice to fans, but he’s 31 years old entering next season. That’s just slightly too old for the
rebuilding Nationals. Plus, Rivera is a
perfect fit for the Rockies who need bullpen help. After the Holliday deal, they acquired Street, but he will
probably be flipped over to another team.
I also doubt they will pick up Matt Herges‘
option for next year considering his poor season and his age (39). If you add Rivera to the Colorado ‘pen, it
will most likely look like this:
Manny
Corpas (CL)
Taylor
Buccholz (SU)
Jason
Grilli (SU)
If
you noticed there were no lefties in the pen.
That’s because the only left-handed reliever the Rockies have right now
is Glendon
Rusch, and he had a 5.30 ERA last year as a reliever, and lefties have a
.334 OBP against him in his career. A
.334 OBP is not bad but to make a team as a lefty specialist, you need to be
better than that.
Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins,
and Jeff Baker
block Koshansky
in Colorado, so the Rockies need to trade him.
He has shown enough talent and put up good enough numbers in the minors
to have legitimate trade value. There
will be other teams interested like the Giants and Mariners or maybe even the
Yankees. Ultimately, I think Saul
Rivera will win the Rockies over.
Yes,
the Nationals have Kory Casto, Nick Johnson,
Dmitri Young,
and Josh
Willingham. All that doesn’t mean
much though. First off, the Nationals
need to trade away Willingham; he just doesn’t fit with the team. Plus, there is little chance Johnson or
Young can return completely healthy.
And if they are healthy, GM Jim Bowden should trade them for whatever he
can get, and that won’t be much. If
they manage to start next season healthy, they better be traded quickly because
it won’t be long before they go back on the DL.
There is almost as little hope as
Johnson and Young both staying healthy as there is a chance Kory Casto can
finally start producing in the bigs. In
82 career games, he’s had 14 extra base hits and a measly .264 OBP. It’s worth noting that Casto’s horrendous
MLB stint in 2007 really drowned his career numbers, but even though he
improved greatly in 2008, he still wasn’t all that impressive. This last spring I had faith in Casto. I truly thought it was not too late for him
to turn his career around. But now it’s
time to move on and try something else.
That means it is time to finally give Koshansky a full-time major league
job.
Maybe
Casto can still make the team next year.
After all, he can play left field and both corner positions. Who knows, maybe Casto can capture some of his
minor league power and bring it to the bigs.
Acquiring
Koshansky doesn’t mean Washington is lacking future first base options. Chris
Marrero has dealt with injuries and slumps since he was drafted in the
first round two years ago but he still has big power potential. Bill Rhinehart
doesn’t have the same big upside as Marrero but he put together a good 2008 and
should next year in Double-A Harrisburg.
Nationals trade 2B Ronnie Belliard to the D-Backs for RHP Josh Ellis
Let
me first start off by saying that I don’t think Anderson
Hernandez will ever develop into an adequate starting major league second
baseman. But with the way things are
for the Nationals, they need to at least give him a chance. Despite his AAA .262 OBP he did hit .407
after joining the Nats. He also seems
to have brought his hot bat to the Dominican Winter League as he holds a 1.055 OPS
there.
As
for Belliard,
he is one of the oldest players in the team and needs to be traded this
off-season.
I’ll give Bowden credit for
signing Belliard. Ronnie was the
starting second baseman for St. Louis when they
won the World Series in 2006.
Weirdly enough (well, he only had a .297 OBP with St. Louis), Belliard
wasn’t signed until February 18th to a minor league contract by the Nats. That was only five days before spring
training started. Belliard has done
everything Washington could have imagined and more. The reality is the only way the Belliard signing can truly help
the Nationals is if Bowden trades him for some prospects. Despite
landing on the DL and missing almost 40% of the season, Belliard’s trade value
absolutely soared this season. Not only
did he have his best offensive season of his career, but also he increased his
versatility by playing both corner positions as well as his natural position at
second. The Mets, Brewers, and Dodgers
may hold some interest in Belliard as well, but Arizona appears to be the best
fit for Belliard and the Nats.
Chris Burke
and Augie
Ojeda didn’t have good enough years to warrant consideration for a
full-time gig at 2B. Jesus Merchan
had a nice year at Triple-A and holds a good spot to take over Chris Burke’s
spot on next year’s 25-man roster. That
will allow Burke to gather up some time at Triple-A at bats after his
disappointing 2008.
Josh Ellis is
the prospect that makes the most sense for this specific deal. The two main needs the Nationals have in
their system are middle infielders and relievers. Since the Arizona system is weak on middle infielders, relief
pitchers are the best way to go. Ellis
had a 2.40 ERA this year in Visalia (A+) in his first professional season.
You can see, he pitches sort of like Brian Shouse or Cla Meredith. Too bad the Diamondbacks are moving their AAA affiliate to Reno
(the Reno Aces) because Ellis could have had a chance to be a sidewinder on the
Tucson Sidewinders. The Diamondbacks
are stocked with young relievers, so if pitchers like Abe Woody, A.J. Shappi, Kyler Newby, Jeff Dietz,
and Scott
Maine were offered for Belliard, it would be a fair and beneficial trade
too.
Although it is time for Belliard to leave Washington, he will always be remembered becuase of
In
other baseball news, the iconic Oriole Bird has quit his diet. He has gone from this:
To this (maybe it’s just perspective):
The diet obviously wasn’t working because ever since
the Bird started the diet in 1998, the team is 98 games below .500. Ouch.
They need change. And that
change should come in the form of the logo and mascot getting a beer belly like
Wild Bill Hagy. Thumps up to the Orioles front office. This is their first sign of intelligence since they designed Camden Yards.
A TTP (Theoretical Trade Proposal)
TB trades Andy Sonnanstine to NYM; NYM trades SS Reese Havens and CF
Ezequiel Carrera to SF; SF trades Randy Winn, RHP Keiichi Yabu, and LHP Geno
Espineli to TB
Got that?
So this is a three-team deal.
And yes, the Rays trade away one of their starters in the playoffs Andy
Sonnanstine. Still, this trade
makes sense for every team involved.
The Rays predictably will use their starting pitcher depth to acquire a
bona-fide starter in right field. In
this case it would be Randy Winn.
It’s true, the Rays have a lot of players
who play right field. Eric Hinske, Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist, Fernando Perez,
and Justin
Ruggiano all are capable. But
Hinske and Gross are not exactly the type of guys you want starting every day
on a team that is expected to compete for the championship again next
year. Zobrist and Perez are bright,
young players but at least at this point are most valuable being on the bench
because of Perez’s ability to play every OF position, and his blazing
speed. Zobrist also is very versatile
and is a valuable guy off the bench. He
might even have a reasonable chance to overtake Iwamura
as the Rays starting second baseman. Ruggiano
has done everything you could ask from him in AAA. Yet he just can’t seem to bring the same game to the majors. He had a .911 OPS in 66 AAA games versus
.576 with the Rays. So, with Winn
coming up, in it can put all of the right field questions to rest while adding
a veteran presence that can fill the #2 spot in the Rays order. That way Iwamura can move down in the order
where he should be. If Crawford
continues to struggle, Iwamura could easily come back to the top instead of a
guy like Upton having to be taken out of the heart of the order.
Although Winn will obviously make a huge mark on
the Rays, I think Andy Sonnanstine is the biggest impact player involved in
this deal. Simply put, to have a
Sonnanstine in the Mets rotation would be fantastic for them. Even if, at his best, Sonnanstine is only as
good as a #3 starter, his ability to eat up innings without eating payroll is a
quality invaluable to the Mets at this point.
This way the Mets can afford not resigning Oliver Perez. In my opinion, Jon Niese is
ready to be the Mets’ 5th starter next year. However, if the Mets do re-sign Perez their
rotation would be dynamite. Whether or
not Perez comes back, the Mets would have, for the first time in a while, a
young rotation that can last a long time.
To have a rotation where every pitcher in under control until 2012 is a
huge advantage over the other NL East clubs.
Of course since Sonnanstine is that
valuable, New York will have to give up a lot.
The big sacrifice that the Mets will have to make is their second pick
of the 2008 draft, slugging infielder Reese Havens.
Havens (left) was drafted 22nd overall
as a shortstop but is expected to wind up as third or second baseman by the
time he gets to the majors. Ezequiel
Carrera, a High-A outfielder, didn’t put up great numbers this year but if
you start thinking about his age (21) and the fact that he completely skipped
A-ball, his .344 OBP, 28 steals, and seven dingers are pretty impressive. The Giants have a fair amount of outfielders
like Fred Lewis,
Aaron Rowand,
and Nate
Schierholtz and some nice prospects like Antoan
Richardson, Ben Copeland,
and Eddy
Martinez-Esteve. And yet, with the
decent chance that Rowand and Lewis could get traded in the near future,
Copeland’s and Richardson’s non-overwhelmingness, and Martinez-Esteve’s and
Schierholtz’s sudden lack of power, there is a reason to why the Giants might
want to add another outfield prospect.
Now when you think about it, Tampa Bay would be
trading Sonnanstine straight up for Winn, and that obviously wouldn’t favor
them. But if you add Yabu and Espineli to
the deal, it evens out. Those two will
add depth to the bullpen. And although
Espineli (right) probably will find himself spending some time in Durham, he provides a
lefty arm and the credentials of 2.66 in Triple-A last year in the hitter-friendly
Pacific Coast League. Yabu (below) is pretty old but if he can be effective when he’s 40 (3.57 ERA), how much much worse can he be at 41?
SO, when it’s all said and done, here’s how it
would work out for each team:
Rays
Receive Give Up
Randy Winn Andy Sonnanstine
Keiichi Yabu
Geno Espineli
Giants
Receive Give Up
Reese Havens Randy Winn
Ezequiel Carrera Keiichi
Yabu
Geno Espineli
Mets
Receive Give Up
Andy Sonnanstine Reese
Havens
Ezequiel Carrera
So, what do you think? Fair all around?
I guess since Monday marks the beginning of
baseball’s hardware week, I will give you my picks for each major award (with the
runner-up in parentheses):
Again, these are my picks for who deserves each
award, not my predictions for who will win:
Rookie of the Year
AL – Evan Longoria — (Jose Arredondo)
NL – Geovany Soto — (Joey Votto)
Cy Young
AL – Cliff Lee – (Roy Halladay)
NL – Johan Santana – (CC Sabathia)
MVP
AL – Kevin Youkilis – (Mark Teixeira)
NL – Wily Mo Pe, I
mean, Albert Pujols — (Manny
Ramirez)
Manager of the Year
AL – Joe Maddon — (Ron Gardenhire)
NL – Cecil Cooper — (Charlie Manuel)
What Were You Thinking, Dayton?
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–
By
Dayton, I mean Dayton
Moore, the GM of the Kansas City Royals.
And by “what were you thinking?”, I was referring to the trade of first
baseman Mike
Jacobs for right-handed reliever Leo Nunez with
the Florida Marlins.
It’s
not really that Nunez is that much better than Jacobs. In fact, I’d rank their talent pretty much
even. However, Mike Jacobs just doesn’t
fit all with the Royals team. The
Royals are not a very good team, but the have one glaring strength: first-base
depth. The Royals are stacked with
hard-hitting first basemen like Billy Butler,
Ryan Shealy,
and Kila
Ka’aihue.
The
Royals simply didn’t need Jacobs. Although he
doesn’t deserve it, he will be the Royals starting first baseman next year. That’s the worst part of this whole
deal. This blocks Shealy, Butler, and
Ka’aihue from the major leagues or will at least force them into a reserve
role, which will be bad for their development.
Ryan Shealy
had a great year in AAA, hitting 22 HR with a .376 OBP in only 400
at-bats. Billy Butler
struggled in the bigs this year but is extremely young (23), and more
importantly, has been extremely good in the minors. I still will continue to believe that Butler (below) will develop into one of the best pure hitters until he turns at least 25.
Ka’aihue
is the most intriguing player in the KC first-base glut. Kila (not to be confused with his brother Kala)
absolutely destroyed minor league pitching in both AA and AAA this past season,
and held his own in very limited at-bats with the Royals in September (21 at-bats,
.804 OPS). But it’s those minor league
numbers that have you really wondering why the Royals felt they needed Mike
Jacobs. Would you want a player
that had a .299 OBP in 2008 to be the reason that the guy who put up
the numbers below doesn’t get
to play?
(Yes, he does in fact hit with his eyes closed)
Level G
OBP HR RBI
SLG OPS
AA
91 .463 26
79 .624 1.086
AAA 33
.439 11 21 .640 1.079
MLB 12
.375 1 1 .429 .804
In case, you would like to visualize Kila better, here’s
the video of his first ML homer. He
almost has as sweet of a swing of Jacobs.
Almost. (If you watch the vid, notice that Billy Butler has fallen victim of the Bazooka Trick.)
This
is just one of those deals that
makes so little sense it actually makes you think that the Royals are in the
process of working on another trade that would include either Shealy, Ka’aihue
or Butler being dealt away. A example
of this type of deal is the Randy Wolf-for-Chad Reineke trade at last year’s
deadline. It made so little sense for
the Astros, I was convinced Houston was going to trade Wolf to another team
before the deadline ended. It didn’t
happen. Yet, it would not surprise me
to see Dayton Moore trade away at least one of the Royals remaining first
baseman.
And
since the Royals made this deal with the Marlins, it’s obvious that they were
not giving up some overpaid veteran for Jacobs. No, the Royals had to sacrifice a bright, young, already
successful reliever in Leo Nunez. He
had a 2.98 ERA in 45 games (all in relief), and he’s just 25 years old. Nunez is a great pick-up for the Marlins,
and I agree that he was a guy they should have asked for from the Royals. Still, when I heard of the likely probability of Jacobs being dealt, I sort of envisioned more in return than just a guy like Nunez. If the Royals threw in a guy like
Gilbert
de la Vara I’d be a little more happy. I think I may be overvaluing Jacobs a little becuase of his sweet swing, but what’s pretty is pretty, and when he connects it just looks nice.
Bottom Line
Talent
wise, this trade pretty much evens out for both clubs.
It made sense for the Marlins to trade Jacobs, but I felt they could have
gotten a little more. For the Royals though,
it was just completely unnecessary, and leads me to speculate Dayton Moore
is simultaneously working on another deal to trade away another first baseman
from his team.
Grades
Marlins – B
Royals – D+
OK Orioles, You Need to…
Trade Melvin Mora and
Chris Waters to the Brewers for Alcides Escobar
I really dig this deal for both teams
involved. It’s no secret that either
Escobar or J.J. Hardy will probably get traded, and the Orioles are a perfect
fit.
They need a shortstop badly, and
Escobar should be ready for the majors by next year.
The Brewers get Melvin Mora (left) who
is coming off a career year, driving in 104 runs, 23 home runs, and a .342
OBP. He has a no-trade clause in his
contract but I think he’ll wave it to be able to escape a re-building franchise
and a join a playoff team.
The Brewers are desperate for a
third-baseman after the atrocious year Bill
Hall had. Plus, the Brewers could
keep J.J. Hardy
as their shortstop of the future.
Since Mora becomes a free agent after next season, he won’t interfere
with Mat Gamel‘s
progression up the system, as he will likely be the 2010 Brewers starting third
baseman, and Mora will move on to another team.
On the other end of the spectrum,
the Orioles get
a shortstop for the next six years or so, that can deliver a very good OBP,
a fair amount of home runs, a lot of speed, and stellar defense every single
season.
Unless Mora hits like he did in 2004
(.921 OPS), Mora-for-Escobar will slightly favor the Orioles, so they probably
will need to throw in a pitcher like Brian Bass or Chris Waters.
If I were Doug Melvin,
I’d choose Chris
Waters as the extra player, just to add depth to the thin rotation
Milwaukee has. If Milwaukee can’t
resign Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia, then Waters may even may even be competing
for the 5th spot in the 2009 Brewers rotation.
There’s not a great chance that Waters will
be win the battle considering he’s competing with Mark DiFelice,
Chris
Capuano, and Seth McClung. It’s still very likely the Brewers will send
Capuano to Nashville (AAA) since he missed all off 2008 after having Tommy John surgery.
DeFelice and McClung could make the team as relievers or as starters,
but both are fully capable of pitching adequately while eating up some innings
in the rotation.
Does this mean the Brewers should
trade Bill Hall? I don’t think so. He can serve as a super-utility man. With Hall being able to play left field,
center field, third base, shortstop, and second base, he should be able to rack
up at least 350 at-bats in a full season.
Oddly enough, out of all the positions Hall can play, the one he would
probably play the least is third base. Russell
Branyan had such a solid season he is probably the one who will be tabbed
to fill in on Melvin Mora’s off days.
Trade Aubrey Huff to
the Indians for Scott Lewis, Mike Pontius, and Niuman Romero
I
believe the Indians will be good enough next year to make the playoffs, but
they will need to replace Andy Marte at
third base. I know Aubrey Huff
isn’t the best defensive third baseman but he played 33 games there in 2008,
and has racked up 361 games at the hot corner in his nine-year career.
In
return for Huff, the Orioles should ask for the blatantly obvious: a starting
pitcher. Scott Lewis
succeeded at every level he played in; AA, AAA, and ultimately the majors. These were his minor league stats this year:
Level GS
ERA W L
IP WHIP
AA 13 2.33 6 2
73.1 0.97
AAA 4 2.63 2 2 24 0.96
MLB
4 2.63 4
0 24 1.08
Lewis will fit extremely
well into the Orioles rotation, and could be one of the cornerstones of the
team’s pitching staff.
Scott Lewis is good
player, but obviously it will take at least one more player to acquire
Huff. Originally I thought the Orioles
should target Jared
Goedert, because every single Orioles third base prospect had a rough
season, and Goedert was ready to play in AA, so he wouldn’t block any other the
other prospects. Later I realized that
I was being hypocritical because Goedert, like the rest of the third-base
Orioles prospects, had a very disappointing year after a promising 2007.
First off, is Tyler Henson,
who had a good first stint in professional baseball with the Low-A Aberdeen
Iron Birds in 2007:
Level G OBP HR RBI SB SLG OPS
A- 67 .353 5 31 20 .449 .802
But then went through
struggles in his first full season with Class A Delmarva:
Level G OBP HR RBI SB SLG OPS
A 127 .310 11 62 19 .392 .702
Even though Henson had a
rough year, it’s not bad enough for him to repeat the level, so he should
attempt to rebound in High A Frederick. That being said, with Billy Rowell
(drafted 9th overall in 2006) having another disappointing in
Frederick, Henson will be forcing Rowell (right) to first base.
Rowell’s year was bad enough that
he’ll repeat the Carolina League, but I wouldn’t label him a bust just
yet. He’s still extremely young (20
years old entering Opening Day 2009).
However, he hasn’t even come close to what everybody thought he would
do. He was drafted as a raw power guy;
a guy who wasn’t even expected to have a high OBP, but he’s only hit 19 home
runs in 922 career at-bats. It may be a
concern that learning how to play first base will effect his hitting, but I
think in the long term it will probably help his offensive production. Another aspect of this move is that it
potentially has set up Brandon Snyder
to block Billy Rowell. However, I don’t
think we can look at this switch in those types of terms because Rowell has not
had one good full season yet since signing with the O’s. Worry about Snyder blocking Rowell when
Rowell finally becomes a good player.
And lastly, let’s talk Mike Costanzo. He had a great season last year at AA
Reading, but since switching organizations (twice), and getting promoted to
AAA, his production has seriously slipped.
These are his numbers last year at Double-A:
Level G OBP HR RBI SB SLG OPS
AA 137 .368 27 86 2 .490 .858
And here are his 2008
numbers at Triple-A Norfolk:
Level G OBP HR RBI SB SLG OPS
AAA 129 .333 11 63 2 .395 .728
Despite Costanzo’s bad
season, if Melvin Mora gets traded he’ll get every chance to be the starting
third baseman in Baltimore. He’ll have
to produce though, because Oscar
Salazar (probable starting first baseman) and Scott
Moore (probable DH) also play the hot corner.
Anyway, back to the Aubrey Huff trade… I decided that
despite the 2008 struggles of Orioles third base prospects not named Tyler
Kolodny, the O’s shouldn’t pursue Jared Goedert. Instead they should switch their attention to adding depth the
bullpen and second base (I didn’t forget about Ryan Adams and
his 52 errors). The Indians have a
wide array of young relievers like Josh Judy, John Gaub (100
Ks in 64.1 innings), and Vinnie Pestano. But the one young reliever I believe the
Orioles should first ask from the Indians is Mike Pontius.
Pontius is only 21 entering next year, and
had a microscopic 0.82 ERA in Class
A Lake County. Yes, he had 6.26 ERA in
Class A Advanced Kinston, but so what?
He’ll start back there next year and pitch against players at his same
level (2007 high school draftees in their second full season).
As for Niuman Romero
(not Newman),
he had a solid year at Class A Advanced Kinston and should be ready for
Double-A Bowie. I’m not speculating that
the Orioles should or will trade Brian Roberts, but when you think about, there
is not that great a chance the Orioles will finish their rebuilding process by
the time his contract expires. So, it
obviously makes sense to fill up on depth especially when you only have one
other legit prospect at 2B, Adams who is only in A-ball.
All in all this trade
works out great for both teams, and should help the Indians compete for a World
Series next year, as well as add more talented, young players to quicken the
O’s rebuilding process.
Trade George Sherill
and Luke Scott to the Mets for Dillon Gee, Junior Guerra, Eric Beaulac, and
Shawn Bowman
This deal is a no-brainer
for both GMs Andy MacPhail and Omar Minaya.
The Mets may be hesitant to give up a worthy relief prospect in Junior Guerra,
but he’s at least two years away and the Mets need relief help now. Sherrill
would be a great addition to the Mets shaky bullpen. Sure, he may be overrated because of his 31 saves, but he will
pitch better than his 4.73 ERA indicates.
Although it’s theoretically possible that Sherrill can serve as the Mets
closer, he would be much better suited as a 7th inning set-up
man. With lefties Scott Schoenweis and
Pedro Feliciano already in New York, Sherrill won’t go back to being a
specialist like he was in Seattle.
Expect his ERA to go down to around 3.60 with another year of throwing
at least an inning per outing rather than just facing one or two batters like
he did with the Mariners. It’s possible
he may also pitch better in the less pressurized role of a 7th
inning set-up man. I don’t think that
Sherrill’s bad stats were completely because of facing a lot right-handed
batters. He had a 3.68 ERA through
June. I think it was just the new
workload that ultimately pulled Sherrill’s numbers down.
Luke
Scott can be Mets starting left fielder in 2009, and provide more power and
good on-base skills. Nick Evans
didn’t hit much in 2009, and is probably better suited too start 2009 in
Buffalo (AAA). Dan Murphy
hopefully can make a clean transition to second base for 2009. Murphy’s switch is crucial as this deal only
gets done if the AFL
experiment is successful and the Mets are confident Murphy is ready to take
over for Luis Castillo next year. This
whole trade seems much better when you realize Luke Scott is essentially
replacing Luis
Castillo in the Mets lineup.
As I wrote earlier, the
Mets probably will feel a little antsy about giving up Junior
Guerra (left)who’s a top relief prospect, but only him and Dillon Gee (right) are
the big prospects that the Mets could have expected to contribute with the big
club in the next two years.
Beaulac is a
middle of the road prospect who had a nice, but relatively short 2008 season
after signing. Despite making six
relief appearances this year, Beaulac is obviously better suited as a starter,
seeing how he dominated in college in that role. He should begin the year in the Class A Advanced Frederick
rotation. Gee is by far the best
prospect the O’s acquire in this deal.
He had a sensational year at St. Lucie (A+), posting a 3.25 ERA, and
then posted an even better 1.33 ERA in his four starts with Double-A
Binghamton. Gee is 23 years old
entering ’09, and was only drafted last year. It’s still smart to take it easy with Gee and let him pile up at
least 16 starts in Bowie before they could possibly called him up to
Triple-A. And that leaves the very last
player, Shawn
Bowman. Ahh, Shawn Bowman.
If not injuries, he would probably would
have been traded already because he’s not quite on the same level as the Mets
current third baseman. Although he’s no
David Wright, he’s still shown he’s a talented player, but it all about
staying healthy. How injury-prone is
he? Well, 2008 was his fourth year at
the same level (A-Advanced), but it certainly wasn’t completely his fault. Here are his number of games played from
every season since 2005:
2005: 87
2006: 32
2007: 6
2008: 54
Yes, every single one of
those seasons was in St. Lucie except for the last, in which he played for
about a month in Double-A Binghamton, and struggled (.626 OPS, 29 games). The important thing about 2008, for Bowman,
was how well he hit with St. Lucie. He
had a .369 OBP with 2 home runs and .485 SLG in 97 at-bats. That should put him on track to be Bowie’s
(AA) starting third baseman in 2009.
So, with all of this talk
about the Orioles farm system, I realized that the Orioles starting pitching
situation is actually pretty impressive. After all these trades take place, the Orioles minor league
affiliates’ rotations will look like this:
(Note: I think the major
league starting rotation consists of Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson,
and Hayden
Penn)
Frederick – A+
1. Brian Matusz
4. Eric Beaulac
6. Luis Noel
Bowie – AA
1. Jake Arrieta
2. Dillon Gee
3. Kyle Schmidt
4. Brandon Erbe
6. Nathan Nery
Norfolk – AAA
4. Jason Berken
5. Zach Clark
Yes, I realize that
Frederick and Bowie have rotations of six, but it’s worth cutting down on
starts then to send a pitcher (ex. Luis Noel, Chris Salberg) that has a bright
future as a starting pitcher to the bullpen, just because you have five other
pitchers better than him. You never
want to have your good depth of talent to derail a player’s career.
So, to wrap it all up, the
Orioles get to reduce their salary even more, so they can sign core players
like Nick Markakis, Chris Ray, and maybe even Matt Wieters. Plus, the extra money can also go to signing
their top draft picks next year. The
Mets upgrade their bullpen and lineup, the Brewers finally get a true third
baseman, and the Indians get a huge impact bat that may send them over the hump
of the Twins or White Sox.
There is a lot to agree
with and a lot to disagree with in this post, so let me hear it ALL. Good or bad.
On a currently related
issue, did anyone else notice Akinori Iwamura trying to shove the game ending
ball of the NLCS into his back pocket, struggling with sticking it in, and then
just screwing it, and jumping into the celebration pile. That gave me a little smile… here’s the video.
OK Blue Jays, You Need to…
Leave Gregg Zaun and Rod Barajas alone; promote Brian Jeroloman and Curtis
Thigpen
The Blue Jays need to
decide whether they are going to re-sign Gregg Zaun,
and pick up the 2009 option on Rod Barajas’s
contract.
The Jays should do neither,
and move on with new catchers. If I
were Cito Gaston, Brian
Jeroloman (24) and Curtis Thigpen
(26) would be the two catchers that would start the regular season. I’m aware of the awful season Thigpen
experienced, but it’s better to let Thigpen rebound, than paying Barajas $2.5
million next year. Jeroloman (right) doesn’t
offer that much power, but he can certainly hit, as he had a .396 OBP in New
Hampshire (AA), and a .421 OBP with Class A Advanced Dunedin in 2007.
As for Thigpen , he had a
solid year at Syracuse in 2007, with 3 dingers, and a .348 OBP in 50
games. He got called up to Toronto
where he struggled (.294 OBP, 0 HR), but was expected to make a serious contribution
in 2008. Unfortunately, it was a
different story. He started back in
Syracuse, and he only managed a measly .267 OBP with three homers in 361
at-bats. I still believe Thigpen can
turn out to be a solid backup catcher in the major leagues. So, if given a chance to play behind
Jeroloman, Curtis will be able to either prove me wrong or right next
year. I’m confident he can rebound
from his tough 08 campaign.
Trade Shawn Camp to the Red Sox for Zak Farkes
Trade Jason Frasor to the Angels for Sean Rodriguez
Camp (below) and Frasor were
both valuable to the Blue Jays in 2008, but with the depth of the Toronto
bullpen, there are both the odd men out of the 2009 bullpen.
The 09 pen is going to consist of B.J. Ryan,
Jeremy Accardo, Brandon League, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Brian Tallet, and
Brian Wolfe. I truthfully have no idea
what will become of Casey
Janssen. It’s just my gut intuition
that tells me they should hang onto him.
And also because, well, he’s really good.
Anyway, unless someone
gets injured, the Jays are going to need to trade Camp and Frasor, as they are
both too good for AAA. Frasor has a
much higher trade value than Camp, but both are going to fetch prospects of a
reasonable quality.
I think the perfect
trade involving Camp would be going to the Red Sox for third base prospect Zak Farkes. Farkes (right) isn’t that big of a prospect, but he
plays a position that Toronto doesn’t have a lot of depth in, plus he provides
some power. I’d say Farkes has the
potential to at 20 home runs a year, and maintain an acceptable .OBP, although
it will never to be above average. Farkes
isn’t a huge acquisition, but remember, it’s Shawn Camp he’s getting traded for.
The Frasor trade is a much
higher impact deal. Frasor (left) can fill the
role of the 6th inning set-up man/middle reliever, similar to his
role with Toronto. If K-Rod actually
stays in LA, then Frasor’s role will lessen, but seeing the small odds of that
possibility, Frasor should only be behind Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, and
ex-teammate Justin Speier in the bullpen pyramid.
If this deal is made, the
Jays suddenly have their 2009 starting shortstop. Sean Rodriguez
crushed the ball in his 66-game stint with AAA Salt Lake. Here his stats:
G OBP AB HR RBI SB BB SO SLG OPS
66
.397 248 21 52
4 29
45 .645 1.042
Yes, he struggled mightily
with the Angels:
G OBP AB HR RBI SB BB SO SLG OPS
59 .276 167 3 10 3 14 55 .317 .593
Yet, he’s still only 24
years old and has a very high upside.
In fact, the more I look at Rodriguez (below), the more I think about how much
better he is than Jason Frasor. I
still consider this an even trade for both clubs involved, though. The Angels could use one more arm in the
bullpen; an arm just like Jason Frasor.
With former first rounder Kevin Ahrens
moving to third base permanently (he had a bad
first season anyway), the Jays have zero shortstop prospects. With Rodriguez at short, the Jays wouldn’t
have to play John
McDonald or Marco
Scutaro everyday and let the new
acquisition play up to his full potential in the majors. I’m sure that the Pacific Coast League
helped his power numbers a little, yet Rodriguez still has 20-homer power. If demoted, I would have been slightly
interesting to how Rodriguez’s power numbers held up in the more pitcher
friendly International League. That
small thought was shot down when the Blue Jays moved their Triple-A affiliate
from Syracuse to Las Vegas, but that’s no big deal. Rodriguez should, without a doubt, be the starting shortstop in
Toronto. That it is of course, if this
trade actually happens.
A Tiny Transaction
OK, here’s another post about a minor transaction
most people completely looked over.
Even I looked over it at first, but one thing led to another (I started
with researching the Orioles starting rotation) and I started extensive
research on one specific player: Kurt Birkins.
Who? You should know if you have
been an Orioles fan for over two years.
He was an “average” left hander that made appearances from the bullpen
in 2006 and 2007.
Well, to make this story short: the Orioles placed
him on waivers this off-season and the Rays picked him up. Birkins was in AAA this year, playing with
the Durham Bulls, before he was flat out released. What did he do in AAA?
Two wins, three losses and a 7.52 ERA in 36 games, all but one in
relief. And that’s the
problem. No, not his high ERA, I’m
talking about the fact he was exclusively used a reliever.
In the game of baseball, managers and pitching
coaches have the tough job of deciding if a pitcher should be a starter of reliever. There is a very thin line between the two,
but usually by the time a player reaches AA, the organization knows what the
future of that pitcher will be as. If
you solely look at the ERA of pitchers, you would assume that almost every
pitcher is better suited for the bullpen.
It really does make sense.
Relievers put all of their strength into one or two innings, while
starters have to split their energy up into six innings or more.
It makes sense that if a pitcher is moved from the
rotation to the bullpen, his ERA will go down, unless that pitcher is of the
type that gets better the more times they see a certain hitter, although
usually, the case is the opposite for the pitcher. Therefore it is difficult to judge whether a pitcher is more
valuable in the pen or rotation.
However, all of this discussion doesn’t apply to
Birkins. That’s what makes him so
unusual. He is one of the few pitchers
that pitches extremely better as a starter then a reliever. Two years ago, Fausto Carmona
was a fine example, although some of his struggles may have come from the fact
that he was used as the team’s closer.
Obviously, Carmona is a starter now, but for some
reason, Birkins is still considered a reliever. Maybe it’s because he is short.
Maybe it’s because he is a left-hander.
For whatever the reason, the only organizations Birkins has ever been
with have treated him as a reliever when he gets to the high levels.
The
Orioles drafted Birkins in 2000 in the 33rd
round. All the way through AAA,
they used him as a starter. But when he
got called up to the majors in 2006, he was put in the bullpen, and never got a
chance to start.
Heading into 2007,
Birkins was again assigned to AAA Norfolk as a reliever. Despite having made all but one of his
appearances in Norfolk last year, as a starter.
I
just don’t get it. Birkins made 19
starts in Norfolk the year before, and had a 3.05 ERA. And then, he gets transferred to a reliever,
after he made 35 relief appearances with the O’s the year before and had a 4.94
ERA. So, after struggling again with
the Orioles (as a reliever) the next year, Birkins was put on waivers, and
Tampa Bay claimed him. In an instant, I
knew that desperately needing pitching Baltimore had lost a real legitimate,
young starter. When claimed, Birkins
was only 27 years old. I was really
hoping that the Rays would realize just how good of a starting pitcher Kurt
Birkins was. But no, when the Rays again
assigned Birkins to AAA they also used him as a reliever. You already know what he did this year. I’m 90% sure if the Rays decided on using
him as a starter, his ERA would have vastly gone down. That’s the type of pitcher Birkins has
proved himself to be over his career.
More innings and a better ERA?
What more could you want?
From
the Rays point of view, it would have been hard to imagine someone being so
drastically better as a starter than a reliever, but if any pitcher can prove
it’s possible, it’s definitely Kurt Birkins.
On
August 29th, the Rays released Birkins. Amazingly, no team has taken notice of what he did with Norfolk
in 2006, and he’s still unsigned. If I
were a GM of a pitching deprived team, I would without a doubt, sign him to be
a starter. Since Birkins still is still
looking for a place to play, the Orioles have a chance of redemption if they
bring Birkins back.
Here is
Birkins’ statistics throughout his professional career. Take note on the number of starts and relief
appearances each year. See a pattern? The higher percentage of his games that were
starts, a noticeably lower ERA.
The Greatest Box Score Ever
This is the one of
greatest box scores ever.
Here
It Is
If you somehow missed it,
look at Winston-Salem’s hitting box, and check out Adam Ricks’ line. Yeah, you read right. It’s crazy.
I actually got Adam
Ricks‘ (pictured) autograph about a month ago, and I’m sure glad I
did. He’ll have a very small place in
history because of Sunday’s game.
I’m
not exactly sure why Winston-Salem Warthogs manager Tim Blackwell
decides to pick a player every year to do this feat on a specific day (last
year he picked Robert
Hudson), but it sure is interesting.
Ricks actually got told before the game began that he was going to be
given the chance.
Ricks is usually a
catcher, but played infield in college.
It’s another one of those things that only happens in the minors. I’m sort of bummed I didn’t head out to
attend this game in Frederick. It would
have been pretty memorable (and a long drive).
I wonder why Blackwell
decided to do this on a road game. It
would seem to make sense to do it at a home game, so you can treat your fans to
an extreme oddity.
On another quick note, the
Nats suck. Wait, you knew that.
I knew that. Everybody knew it. But
wait, that’s not what I’m talking about.
The Nats suck at sucking. They
can’t win when they need to win, and they can’t lose when they need to
lose. If you don’t get me, here’s what
I mean. The Nationals are not going to
the playoffs, so it theoretically makes sense for them to lose as many games as
they can, so they are guaranteed to have the first overall pick in the draft
next year. But of course, right as I
finally start rooting for the Nationals to lose as many games as possible, they
go on the best winning streak in baseball.
That’s the Nats for you. They
seriously can’t do anything right. They
can’t even get their stadium renderings right.
Whenever anybody asked Stan Kasten, HOK, or the Lerners, about what made
Nationals Park unique, they responded “the cherry trees in the left field
seats”. Well, what’s so special about
Nationals Park now? It’s the only park where you can’t walk all the way around the lower deck because of the stupid Presidents Club?
Notice how the renderings
make the cherry trees look spectacular, but in real life it is an entirely
different story. In fact, the cherry
trees are completely non-existent when you attend a baseball game in Washington.
Renderings:
Reality:
Justice!
That’s right. My man Nelson Cruz (pictured) finally
got the call. If you don’t get what
I am talking about, then read the very last paragraph of this
entry. Cruz has been the best hitter in
the minors above rookie ball. Yes, I
admit Roberto
Lopez and Jaff
Decker have been better in their limited time.
Cruz was on fire before his injury (which only kept him out for a
week), and after he came back. I know
I’ve said it before, but Cruz’s
numbers are SICK. 1.123 OPS? Why should I even be surprised he’s having
such a great season? He did the exact
same thing with Oklahoma last year!
But everything isn’t as
great as it appears. Will Nelson
actually start? The answer, at least so
far, is no. The worst part is the
Rangers have a very good argument of why Cruz is not as good as Marlon Byrd or Brandon Boggs. Boggs is playing great, taking a lot of
walks and hitting for occasional power, although the lack of pop is seriously
noticeable compared to Cruz’s.
Boggs and Byrd are playing
very well with a combined .386 OBP and 3 home runs within the past ten
games.
Boggs (left) has been playing
continually better since getting called up in late April. He has a .382 OBP with two homers the past
ten games. But here’s something
interesting. Look at Brandon
Boggs’ numbers at AAA. Then compare
those stats to Nelson
Cruz’s stats at AAA. If Boggs can
be a serviceable starting player in the majors, consider how great Cruz can
be. Ever since Cruz started putting up
these numbers, he’s never gotten called back up, before now. Remember, the numbers Cruz put up last year
at AAA, were after his time with Texas.
Now it’s time to talk
Marlon Byrd. Byrd enjoyed a breakout
season last year after Kenny Lofton left, but struggled early this season. Byrd had a .268 OBP on June 1st
with only one home run. But after
slowly getting better in June, Byrd went on a tear in late July and early
August.
Obviously, Byrd couldn’t keep
it up, but still is playing well with a .390 OBP and six RBI in his last ten
games. I really don’t think Byrd is a
starting player on a championship team.
I don’t mean to say I
think the Rangers could be a championship team, but just commenting on the type of
a player Byrd is. I believe that’s a
good way of evaluating a player. Think
about it this way: if a clone of that player played at every position, could
that team’s offense be good enough win the World Series? Don’t take it literally. Juan Uribe is a below average starting
player, yet he was the shortstop for the 2005 Chi Sox. But, evaluation wise, it’s a good question
to ask yourself when determining how good a player is.
For me, out of all the
players, the most interesting to watch the rest of the season will be Nelson
Cruz. This call up could make or break
his entire career. If he fails, he could
be considered one of the greatest Four-A players of all time.
How about a crazy
prediction? Actually, not really
crazy. This is my true prediction
for Nelson Cruz the rest of the year:
OBP HR RBI SB SLG OPS
.348 5 9 1 .527 .875
Let’s see how close I will
be…
mlblogsdistrictboy
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