TTPs for the Nationals

Nationals trade Austin Kearns to the Phillies for LHP Moises Melendez

There are a lot of "ifs" in this trade.  This deal only makes sense if the Phillies fail to re-sign Pat Burrell, and if Washington eats up most, if not all, of Kearns' salary for next year (last year of his contract).  Kearns is owed $8 million next year, about six million more than he is worth.  

If the Nationals are willing to pay that six million, then it makes sense for the Phillies, with their need of right-handed outfielders, to acquire Kearns as part of the solution to Burrell leaving.  I am not saying that Kearns is worthy of being the Phillies starting left fielder.  He's only as good as a fourth outfielder, but he is a good guy to provide power off the bench, and be a back-up in case of injury. 

Any team interested in acquiring Kearns (actually Detroit and Toronto are the others I can think of) should understand they have all the leverage in the world.  The Nationals need to get rid of Kearns no matter how much salary they have to eat, and no matter how bad a prospect they get.   The Nats have Roger Bernadina, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes set to start with Willie Harris, Mike Daniel, and Wily Mo Pena behind them.  Kearns doesn't deserve to be in AAA, but he has no place with the Nationals. 

Like I said, the Nationals hardly have any leverage even though they have the player with the bigger name.  Therefore they have to take it easy on their asking price.  The important negotiation process will not be what prospect they get, but rather how much they will pay of Kearns' salary.  I think 75% is enough.  Obviously the more money the Nationals eat, the better prospect they get but they can't get carried away.  Moises Melendez is not trash.  True, he's not a high profile prospect (like Kearns once was) and probably projects as a middle reliever or lefty specialist, but hey, that's the type of pitcher the Nats need more of.  Melendez wasn't used as a lefty specialist this year in Class-A Lakewood, but being a left-handed middle reliever without dominating stuff makes it a likely future scenario.  Melendez would go to Potomac (A+), and maybe get a taste of Double-A before the season ends.

No matter how much salary they he will have to eat, Jim Bowden (who apparently thinks he a Jedi) needs to trade Kearns.  End of story.  I hope Jimmy B can put Kearns' "glory" years with the Reds behind him, and move on to younger, more talented, less expensive pastures.  

Rockies trade 1B Joe Koshansky to the Nationals for RHP Saul Rivera

It's very sad (Saul is my favorite player), but the truth is, if this deal were made, it would benefit both teams. 

Saul is extremely nice to fans, but he's 31 years old entering next season.  That's just slightly too old for the rebuilding Nationals.  Plus, Rivera is a perfect fit for the Rockies who need bullpen help.  After the Holliday deal, they acquired Street, but he will probably be flipped over to another team.  I also doubt they will pick up Matt Herges' option for next year considering his poor season and his age (39).  If you add Rivera to the Colorado 'pen, it will most likely look like this:

Manny Corpas (CL)

Taylor Buccholz (SU)

Jason Grilli (SU)

Saul Rivera

Luis Vizcaino

Ryan Speier

Steven Register

If you noticed there were no lefties in the pen.  That's because the only left-handed reliever the Rockies have right now is Glendon Rusch, and he had a 5.30 ERA last year as a reliever, and lefties have a .334 OBP against him in his career.  A .334 OBP is not bad but to make a team as a lefty specialist, you need to be better than that.

Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, and Jeff Baker block Koshansky in Colorado, so the Rockies need to trade him.  He has shown enough talent and put up good enough numbers in the minors to have legitimate trade value.   There will be other teams interested like the Giants and Mariners or maybe even the Yankees.  Ultimately, I think Saul Rivera will win the Rockies over.

Yes, the Nationals have Kory Casto, Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young, and Josh Willingham.   All that doesn't mean much though.  First off, the Nationals need to trade away Willingham; he just doesn't fit with the team.  Plus, there is little chance Johnson or Young can return completely healthy.  And if they are healthy, GM Jim Bowden should trade them for whatever he can get, and that won't be much.  If they manage to start next season healthy, they better be traded quickly because it won't be long before they go back on the DL.

            There is almost as little hope as Johnson and Young both staying healthy as there is a chance Kory Casto can finally start producing in the bigs.  In 82 career games, he's had 14 extra base hits and a measly .264 OBP.  It's worth noting that Casto's horrendous MLB stint in 2007 really drowned his career numbers, but even though he improved greatly in 2008, he still wasn't all that impressive.  This last spring I had faith in Casto.  I truly thought it was not too late for him to turn his career around.  But now it's time to move on and try something else.  That means it is time to finally give Koshansky a full-time major league job.

Maybe Casto can still make the team next year.  After all, he can play left field and both corner positions.  Who knows, maybe Casto can capture some of his minor league power and bring it to the bigs. 

Acquiring Koshansky doesn't mean Washington is lacking future first base options.  Chris Marrero has dealt with injuries and slumps since he was drafted in the first round two years ago but he still has big power potential.  Bill Rhinehart doesn't have the same big upside as Marrero but he put together a good 2008 and should next year in Double-A Harrisburg.

Nationals trade 2B Ronnie Belliard to the D-Backs for RHP Josh Ellis

Let me first start off by saying that I don't think Anderson Hernandez will ever develop into an adequate starting major league second baseman.  But with the way things are for the Nationals, they need to at least give him a chance.  Despite his AAA .262 OBP he did hit .407 after joining the Nats.  He also seems to have brought his hot bat to the Dominican Winter League as he holds a 1.055 OPS there.

As for Belliard, he is one of the oldest players in the team and needs to be traded this off-season. 

I'll give Bowden credit for signing Belliard.  Ronnie was the starting second baseman for St. Louis when they won the World Series in 2006.  Weirdly enough (well, he only had a .297 OBP with St. Louis), Belliard wasn't signed until February 18^{th to} a minor league contract by the Nats.  That was only five days before spring training started.  Belliard has done everything Washington could have imagined and more.  The reality is the only way the Belliard signing can truly help the Nationals is if Bowden trades him for some prospects.  Despite landing on the DL and missing almost 40% of the season, Belliard's trade value absolutely soared this season.  Not only did he have his best offensive season of his career, but also he increased his versatility by playing both corner positions as well as his natural position at second.   The Mets, Brewers, and Dodgers may hold some interest in Belliard as well, but Arizona appears to be the best fit for Belliard and the Nats. 

Chris Burke and Augie Ojeda didn't have good enough years to warrant consideration for a full-time gig at 2B.  Jesus Merchan had a nice year at Triple-A and holds a good spot to take over Chris Burke's spot on next year's 25-man roster.  That will allow Burke to gather up some time at Triple-A at bats after his disappointing 2008.

Josh Ellis is the prospect that makes the most sense for this specific deal.  The two main needs the Nationals have in their system are middle infielders and relievers.  Since the Arizona system is weak on middle infielders, relief pitchers are the best way to go.  Ellis had a 2.40 ERA this year in Visalia (A+) in his first professional season. 

You can see, he pitches sort of like Brian Shouse or Cla Meredith.  Too bad the Diamondbacks are moving their AAA affiliate to Reno (the Reno Aces) because Ellis could have had a chance to be a sidewinder on the Tucson Sidewinders.  The Diamondbacks are stocked with young relievers, so if pitchers like Abe Woody, A.J. Shappi, Kyler Newby, Jeff Dietz, and Scott Maine were offered for Belliard, it would be a fair and beneficial trade too.

Although it is time for Belliard to leave Washington, he will always be remembered becuase of this and this.

In other baseball news, the iconic Oriole Bird has quit his diet.  He has gone from this: