Trade Melvin Mora and Chris Waters to the Brewers for Alcides Escobar

I really dig this deal for both teams involved.  It's no secret that either Escobar or J.J. Hardy will probably get traded, and the Orioles are a perfect fit. 

They need a shortstop badly, and Escobar should be ready for the majors by next year.

The Brewers get Melvin Mora (left) who is coming off a career year, driving in 104 runs, 23 home runs, and a .342 OBP.  He has a no-trade clause in his contract but I think he'll wave it to be able to escape a re-building franchise and a join a playoff team.

            The Brewers are desperate for a third-baseman after the atrocious year Bill Hall had.  Plus, the Brewers could keep J.J. Hardy as their shortstop of the future.   Since Mora becomes a free agent after next season, he won't interfere with Mat Gamel's progression up the system, as he will likely be the 2010 Brewers starting third baseman, and Mora will move on to another team.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles get a shortstop for the next six years or so, that can deliver a very good OBP, a fair amount of home runs, a lot of speed, and stellar defense every single season.

            Unless Mora hits like he did in 2004 (.921 OPS), Mora-for-Escobar will slightly favor the Orioles, so they probably will need to throw in a pitcher like Brian Bass or Chris Waters.

            If I were Doug Melvin, I'd choose Chris Waters as the extra player, just to add depth to the thin rotation Milwaukee has.  If Milwaukee can't resign Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia, then Waters may even may even be competing for the 5^th spot in the 2009 Brewers rotation.  

There's not a great chance that Waters will be win the battle considering he's competing with Mark DiFelice, Chris Capuano, and Seth McClung.  It's still very likely the Brewers will send Capuano to Nashville (AAA) since he missed all off 2008 after having Tommy John surgery.  DeFelice and McClung could make the team as relievers or as starters, but both are fully capable of pitching adequately while eating up some innings in the rotation.

            Does this mean the Brewers should trade Bill Hall?  I don't think so.  He can serve as a super-utility man.  With Hall being able to play left field, center field, third base, shortstop, and second base, he should be able to rack up at least 350 at-bats in a full season.  Oddly enough, out of all the positions Hall can play, the one he would probably play the least is third base.  Russell Branyan had such a solid season he is probably the one who will be tabbed to fill in on Melvin Mora's off days.

Trade Aubrey Huff to the Indians for Scott Lewis, Mike Pontius, and Niuman Romero

I believe the Indians will be good enough next year to make the playoffs, but they will need to replace Andy Marte at third base.  I know Aubrey Huff isn't the best defensive third baseman but he played 33 games there in 2008, and has racked up 361 games at the hot corner in his nine-year career.

In return for Huff, the Orioles should ask for the blatantly obvious: a starting pitcher.  Scott Lewis succeeded at every level he played in; AA, AAA, and ultimately the majors.  These were his minor league stats this year:

Level      GS      ERA      W      L      IP      WHIP 

AA           13      2.33      6       2     73.1    0.97

AAA         4        2.63      2       2     24       0.96

Lewis will fit extremely well into the Orioles rotation, and could be one of the cornerstones of the team's pitching staff. 

Scott Lewis is good player, but obviously it will take at least one more player to acquire Huff.  Originally I thought the Orioles should target Jared Goedert, because every single Orioles third base prospect had a rough season, and Goedert was ready to play in AA, so he wouldn't block any other the other prospects.  Later I realized that I was being hypocritical because Goedert, like the rest of the third-base Orioles prospects, had a very disappointing year after a promising 2007.

First off, is Tyler Henson, who had a good first stint in professional baseball with the Low-A Aberdeen Iron Birds in 2007:

Level      G      OBP      HR      RBI      SB      SLG      OPS

A-           67    .353       5         31       20      .449     .802

But then went through struggles in his first full season with Class A Delmarva:

Level     G      OBP      HR       RBI      SB       SLG      OPS

A         127    .310      11        62        19      .392      .702

Even though Henson had a rough year, it's not bad enough for him to repeat the level, so he should attempt to rebound in High A Frederick.  That being said, with Billy Rowell (drafted 9^th overall in 2006) having another disappointing in Frederick, Henson will be forcing Rowell (right) to first base. 

Rowell's year was bad enough that he'll repeat the Carolina League, but I wouldn't label him a bust just yet.  He's still extremely young (20 years old entering Opening Day 2009).  However, he hasn't even come close to what everybody thought he would do.  He was drafted as a raw power guy; a guy who wasn't even expected to have a high OBP, but he's only hit 19 home runs in 922 career at-bats.  It may be a concern that learning how to play first base will effect his hitting, but I think in the long term it will probably help his offensive production.  Another aspect of this move is that it potentially has set up Brandon Snyder to block Billy Rowell.  However, I don't think we can look at this switch in those types of terms because Rowell has not had one good full season yet since signing with the O's.  Worry about Snyder blocking Rowell when Rowell finally becomes a good player.

And lastly, let's talk Mike Costanzo.  He had a great season last year at AA Reading, but since switching organizations (twice), and getting promoted to AAA, his production has seriously slipped.  These are his numbers last year at Double-A:

Level        G       OBP      HR       RBI      SB       SLG      OPS

AA           137    .368      27        86        2        .490     .858

And here are his 2008 numbers at Triple-A Norfolk:

Level        G      OBP      HR       RBI       SB       SLG      OPS

AAA         129  .333       11        63         2        .395     .728

Despite Costanzo's bad season, if Melvin Mora gets traded he'll get every chance to be the starting third baseman in Baltimore.  He'll have to produce though, because Oscar Salazar (probable starting first baseman) and Scott Moore (probable DH) also play the hot corner. 

Anyway, back to the Aubrey Huff trade... I decided that despite the 2008 struggles of Orioles third base prospects not named Tyler Kolodny, the O's shouldn't pursue Jared Goedert.  Instead they should switch their attention to adding depth the bullpen and second base (I didn't forget about Ryan Adams and his 52 errors).  The Indians have a wide array of young relievers like Josh Judy, John Gaub (100 Ks in 64.1 innings), and Vinnie Pestano.  But the one young reliever I believe the Orioles should first ask from the Indians is Mike Pontius. 

Pontius is only 21 entering next year, and had a microscopic 0.82 ERA in Class A Lake County.  Yes, he had 6.26 ERA in Class A Advanced Kinston, but so what?  He'll start back there next year and pitch against players at his same level (2007 high school draftees in their second full season).

As for Niuman Romero (not Newman), he had a solid year at Class A Advanced Kinston and should be ready for Double-A Bowie.  I'm not speculating that the Orioles should or will trade Brian Roberts, but when you think about, there is not that great a chance the Orioles will finish their rebuilding process by the time his contract expires.  So, it obviously makes sense to fill up on depth especially when you only have one other legit prospect at 2B, Adams who is only in A-ball.

All in all this trade works out great for both teams, and should help the Indians compete for a World Series next year, as well as add more talented, young players to quicken the O's rebuilding process.

Trade George Sherill and Luke Scott to the Mets for Dillon Gee, Junior Guerra, Eric Beaulac, and Shawn Bowman

This deal is a no-brainer for both GMs Andy MacPhail and Omar Minaya.  The Mets may be hesitant to give up a worthy relief prospect in Junior Guerra, but he's at least two years away and the Mets need relief help now.  Sherrill would be a great addition to the Mets shaky bullpen.  Sure, he may be overrated because of his 31 saves, but he will pitch better than his 4.73 ERA indicates.  Although it's theoretically possible that Sherrill can serve as the Mets closer, he would be much better suited as a 7^th inning set-up man.  With lefties Scott Schoenweis and Pedro Feliciano already in New York, Sherrill won't go back to being a specialist like he was in Seattle.   Expect his ERA to go down to around 3.60 with another year of throwing at least an inning per outing rather than just facing one or two batters like he did with the Mariners.  It's possible he may also pitch better in the less pressurized role of a 7^th inning set-up man.  I don't think that Sherrill's bad stats were completely because of facing a lot right-handed batters.  He had a 3.68 ERA through June.  I think it was just the new workload that ultimately pulled Sherrill's numbers down.

Luke Scott can be Mets starting left fielder in 2009, and provide more power and good on-base skills.  Nick Evans didn't hit much in 2009, and is probably better suited too start 2009 in Buffalo (AAA).  Dan Murphy hopefully can make a clean transition to second base for 2009.  Murphy's switch is crucial as this deal only gets done if the AFL experiment is successful and the Mets are confident Murphy is ready to take over for Luis Castillo next year.  This whole trade seems much better when you realize Luke Scott is essentially replacing Luis Castillo in the Mets lineup.

As I wrote earlier, the Mets probably will feel a little antsy about giving up Junior Guerra (left)who's a top relief prospect, but only him and Dillon Gee (right) are the big prospects that the Mets could have expected to contribute with the big club in the next two years. 

Beaulac is a middle of the road prospect who had a nice, but relatively short 2008 season after signing.  Despite making six relief appearances this year, Beaulac is obviously better suited as a starter, seeing how he dominated in college in that role.  He should begin the year in the Class A Advanced Frederick rotation.  Gee is by far the best prospect the O's acquire in this deal.  He had a sensational year at St. Lucie (A+), posting a 3.25 ERA, and then posted an even better 1.33 ERA in his four starts with Double-A Binghamton.  Gee is 23 years old entering '09, and was only drafted last year.  It's still smart to take it easy with Gee and let him pile up at least 16 starts in Bowie before they could possibly called him up to Triple-A.  And that leaves the very last player, Shawn Bowman.  Ahh, Shawn Bowman. 

If not injuries, he would probably would have been traded already because he's not quite on the same level as the Mets current third baseman.  Although he's no David Wright, he's still shown he's a talented player, but it all about staying healthy.  How injury-prone is he?  Well, 2008 was his fourth year at the same level (A-Advanced), but it certainly wasn't completely his fault.  Here are his number of games played from every season since 2005:

2005: 87

2006: 32

2007: 6

2008: 54

Yes, every single one of those seasons was in St. Lucie except for the last, in which he played for about a month in Double-A Binghamton, and struggled (.626 OPS, 29 games).  The important thing about 2008, for Bowman, was how well he hit with St. Lucie.  He had a .369 OBP with 2 home runs and .485 SLG in 97 at-bats.  That should put him on track to be Bowie's (AA) starting third baseman in 2009. 

So, with all of this talk about the Orioles farm system, I realized that the Orioles starting pitching situation is actually pretty impressive.  After all these trades take place, the Orioles minor league affiliates' rotations will look like this:

(Note: I think the major league starting rotation consists of Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, and Hayden Penn)

Frederick - A+

1. Brian Matusz

2. Zachary Britton

3. Timothy Bascom

4. Eric Beaulac

5. Chris Salberg

6. Luis Noel

Bowie - AA

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Dillon Gee

3. Kyle Schmidt

4. Brandon Erbe

5. Chorye Spoone

6. Nathan Nery

Norfolk - AAA

1. Chris Tillman

2. David Hernandez

3. Brad Bergesen

4. Jason Berken

5. Zach Clark

Yes, I realize that Frederick and Bowie have rotations of six, but it's worth cutting down on starts then to send a pitcher (ex. Luis Noel, Chris Salberg) that has a bright future as a starting pitcher to the bullpen, just because you have five other pitchers better than him.  You never want to have your good depth of talent to derail a player's career.

So, to wrap it all up, the Orioles get to reduce their salary even more, so they can sign core players like Nick Markakis, Chris Ray, and maybe even Matt Wieters.  Plus, the extra money can also go to signing their top draft picks next year.  The Mets upgrade their bullpen and lineup, the Brewers finally get a true third baseman, and the Indians get a huge impact bat that may send them over the hump of the Twins or White Sox. 

There is a lot to agree with and a lot to disagree with in this post, so let me hear it ALL.  Good or bad.

On a currently related issue, did anyone else notice Akinori Iwamura trying to shove the game ending ball of the NLCS into his back pocket, struggling with sticking it in, and then just screwing it, and jumping into the celebration pile.  That gave me a little smile... here's the video.