By Dayton, I mean Dayton Moore, the GM of the Kansas City Royals.  And by "what were you thinking?", I was referring to the trade of first baseman Mike Jacobs for right-handed reliever Leo Nunez with the Florida Marlins. 

It's not really that Nunez is that much better than Jacobs.  In fact, I'd rank their talent pretty much even.  However, Mike Jacobs just doesn't fit all with the Royals team.  The Royals are not a very good team, but the have one glaring strength: first-base depth.  The Royals are stacked with hard-hitting first basemen like Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, and Kila Ka'aihue. 

 

The Royals simply didn't need Jacobs.  Although he doesn't deserve it, he will be the Royals starting first baseman next year.  That's the worst part of this whole deal.  This blocks Shealy, Butler, and Ka'aihue from the major leagues or will at least force them into a reserve role, which will be bad for their development. 

 

Ryan Shealy had a great year in AAA, hitting 22 HR with a .376 OBP in only 400 at-bats.  Billy Butler struggled in the bigs this year but is extremely young (23), and more importantly, has been extremely good in the minors.  I still will continue to believe that Butler (below) will develop into one of the best pure hitters until he turns at least 25.

Ka'aihue is the most intriguing player in the KC first-base glut.  Kila (not to be confused with his brother Kala) absolutely destroyed minor league pitching in both AA and AAA this past season, and held his own in very limited at-bats with the Royals in September (21 at-bats, .804 OPS).  But it's those minor league numbers that have you really wondering why the Royals felt they needed Mike Jacobs.  Would you want a player that had a .299 OBP in 2008 to be the reason that the guy who put up the numbers below doesn't get

to play?

(Yes, he does in fact hit with his eyes closed)

Level      G      OBP      HR      RBI      SLG      OPS

AA         91     .463      26       79       .624     1.086

AAA       33     .439      11       21       .640     1.079

MLB      12      .375      1          1        .429      .804

In case, you would like to visualize Kila better, here's the video of his first ML homer.  He almost has as sweet of a swing of Jacobs.  Almost.  (If you watch the vid, notice that Billy Butler has fallen victim of the Bazooka Trick.)

 

This is just one of those deals that makes so little sense it actually makes you think that the Royals are in the process of working on another trade that would include either Shealy, Ka'aihue or Butler being dealt away.  A example of this type of deal is the Randy Wolf-for-Chad Reineke trade at last year's deadline.  It made so little sense for the Astros, I was convinced Houston was going to trade Wolf to another team before the deadline ended.  It didn't happen.   Yet, it would not surprise me to see Dayton Moore trade away at least one of the Royals remaining first baseman.

And since the Royals made this deal with the Marlins, it's obvious that they were not giving up some overpaid veteran for Jacobs.  No, the Royals had to sacrifice a bright, young, already successful reliever in Leo Nunez.  He had a 2.98 ERA in 45 games (all in relief), and he's just 25 years old.  Nunez is a great pick-up for the Marlins, and I agree that he was a guy they should have asked for from the Royals.  Still, when I heard of the likely probability of Jacobs being dealt, I sort of envisioned more in return than just a guy like Nunez.  If the Royals threw in a guy like Gilbert de la Vara I'd be a little more happy.  I think I may be overvaluing Jacobs a little becuase of his sweet swing, but what's pretty is pretty, and when he connects it just looks nice.

 

Bottom Line

Talent wise, this trade pretty much evens out for both clubs.   It made sense for the Marlins to trade Jacobs, but I felt they could have gotten a little more.  For the Royals though, it was just completely unnecessary, and leads me to speculate Dayton Moore is simultaneously working on another deal to trade away another first baseman from his team.

 

Grades

Marlins -    B

Royals -     D+

Trade Melvin Mora and Chris Waters to the Brewers for Alcides Escobar

 

I really dig this deal for both teams involved.  It's no secret that either Escobar or J.J. Hardy will probably get traded, and the Orioles are a perfect fit. 

They need a shortstop badly, and Escobar should be ready for the majors by next year.

 

The Brewers get Melvin Mora (left) who is coming off a career year, driving in 104 runs, 23 home runs, and a .342 OBP.  He has a no-trade clause in his contract but I think he'll wave it to be able to escape a re-building franchise and a join a playoff team.

 

            The Brewers are desperate for a third-baseman after the atrocious year Bill Hall had.  Plus, the Brewers could keep J.J. Hardy as their shortstop of the future.   Since Mora becomes a free agent after next season, he won't interfere with Mat Gamel's progression up the system, as he will likely be the 2010 Brewers starting third baseman, and Mora will move on to another team.

           

On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles get a shortstop for the next six years or so, that can deliver a very good OBP, a fair amount of home runs, a lot of speed, and stellar defense every single season.

            Unless Mora hits like he did in 2004 (.921 OPS), Mora-for-Escobar will slightly favor the Orioles, so they probably will need to throw in a pitcher like Brian Bass or Chris Waters.

 

            If I were Doug Melvin, I'd choose Chris Waters as the extra player, just to add depth to the thin rotation Milwaukee has.  If Milwaukee can't resign Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia, then Waters may even may even be competing for the 5^th spot in the 2009 Brewers rotation.  

There's not a great chance that Waters will be win the battle considering he's competing with Mark DiFelice, Chris Capuano, and Seth McClung.  It's still very likely the Brewers will send Capuano to Nashville (AAA) since he missed all off 2008 after having Tommy John surgery.  DeFelice and McClung could make the team as relievers or as starters, but both are fully capable of pitching adequately while eating up some innings in the rotation.

 

            Does this mean the Brewers should trade Bill Hall?  I don't think so.  He can serve as a super-utility man.  With Hall being able to play left field, center field, third base, shortstop, and second base, he should be able to rack up at least 350 at-bats in a full season.  Oddly enough, out of all the positions Hall can play, the one he would probably play the least is third base.  Russell Branyan had such a solid season he is probably the one who will be tabbed to fill in on Melvin Mora's off days.

 

Trade Aubrey Huff to the Indians for Scott Lewis, Mike Pontius, and Niuman Romero

 

I believe the Indians will be good enough next year to make the playoffs, but they will need to replace Andy Marte at third base.  I know Aubrey Huff isn't the best defensive third baseman but he played 33 games there in 2008, and has racked up 361 games at the hot corner in his nine-year career.

In return for Huff, the Orioles should ask for the blatantly obvious: a starting pitcher.  Scott Lewis succeeded at every level he played in; AA, AAA, and ultimately the majors.  These were his minor league stats this year:

Level      GS      ERA      W      L      IP      WHIP 

AA           13      2.33      6       2     73.1    0.97

AAA         4        2.63      2       2     24       0.96

MLB         4       2.63      4       0      24      1.08

Lewis will fit extremely well into the Orioles rotation, and could be one of the cornerstones of the team's pitching staff. 

 

Scott Lewis is good player, but obviously it will take at least one more player to acquire Huff.  Originally I thought the Orioles should target Jared Goedert, because every single Orioles third base prospect had a rough season, and Goedert was ready to play in AA, so he wouldn't block any other the other prospects.  Later I realized that I was being hypocritical because Goedert, like the rest of the third-base Orioles prospects, had a very disappointing year after a promising 2007.

 

First off, is Tyler Henson, who had a good first stint in professional baseball with the Low-A Aberdeen Iron Birds in 2007:

Level      G      OBP      HR      RBI      SB      SLG      OPS

A-           67    .353       5         31       20      .449     .802

But then went through struggles in his first full season with Class A Delmarva:

Level     G      OBP      HR       RBI      SB       SLG      OPS

A         127    .310      11        62        19      .392      .702

Even though Henson had a rough year, it's not bad enough for him to repeat the level, so he should attempt to rebound in High A Frederick.  That being said, with Billy Rowell (drafted 9^th overall in 2006) having another disappointing in Frederick, Henson will be forcing Rowell (right) to first base. 

Rowell's year was bad enough that he'll repeat the Carolina League, but I wouldn't label him a bust just yet.  He's still extremely young (20 years old entering Opening Day 2009).  However, he hasn't even come close to what everybody thought he would do.  He was drafted as a raw power guy; a guy who wasn't even expected to have a high OBP, but he's only hit 19 home runs in 922 career at-bats.  It may be a concern that learning how to play first base will effect his hitting, but I think in the long term it will probably help his offensive production.  Another aspect of this move is that it potentially has set up Brandon Snyder to block Billy Rowell.  However, I don't think we can look at this switch in those types of terms because Rowell has not had one good full season yet since signing with the O's.  Worry about Snyder blocking Rowell when Rowell finally becomes a good player.

 

And lastly, let's talk Mike Costanzo.  He had a great season last year at AA Reading, but since switching organizations (twice), and getting promoted to AAA, his production has seriously slipped.  These are his numbers last year at Double-A:

 

Level        G       OBP      HR       RBI      SB       SLG      OPS

AA           137    .368      27        86        2        .490     .858

 

And here are his 2008 numbers at Triple-A Norfolk:

 

Level        G      OBP      HR       RBI       SB       SLG      OPS

AAA         129  .333       11        63         2        .395     .728

Despite Costanzo's bad season, if Melvin Mora gets traded he'll get every chance to be the starting third baseman in Baltimore.  He'll have to produce though, because Oscar Salazar (probable starting first baseman) and Scott Moore (probable DH) also play the hot corner. 

 

Anyway, back to the Aubrey Huff trade... I decided that despite the 2008 struggles of Orioles third base prospects not named Tyler Kolodny, the O's shouldn't pursue Jared Goedert.  Instead they should switch their attention to adding depth the bullpen and second base (I didn't forget about Ryan Adams and his 52 errors).  The Indians have a wide array of young relievers like Josh Judy, John Gaub (100 Ks in 64.1 innings), and Vinnie Pestano.  But the one young reliever I believe the Orioles should first ask from the Indians is Mike Pontius. 

Pontius is only 21 entering next year, and had a microscopic 0.82 ERA in Class A Lake County.  Yes, he had 6.26 ERA in Class A Advanced Kinston, but so what?  He'll start back there next year and pitch against players at his same level (2007 high school draftees in their second full season).

As for Niuman Romero (not Newman), he had a solid year at Class A Advanced Kinston and should be ready for Double-A Bowie.  I'm not speculating that the Orioles should or will trade Brian Roberts, but when you think about, there is not that great a chance the Orioles will finish their rebuilding process by the time his contract expires.  So, it obviously makes sense to fill up on depth especially when you only have one other legit prospect at 2B, Adams who is only in A-ball.

 

All in all this trade works out great for both teams, and should help the Indians compete for a World Series next year, as well as add more talented, young players to quicken the O's rebuilding process.

 

Trade George Sherill and Luke Scott to the Mets for Dillon Gee, Junior Guerra, Eric Beaulac, and Shawn Bowman

 

This deal is a no-brainer for both GMs Andy MacPhail and Omar Minaya.  The Mets may be hesitant to give up a worthy relief prospect in Junior Guerra, but he's at least two years away and the Mets need relief help now.  Sherrill would be a great addition to the Mets shaky bullpen.  Sure, he may be overrated because of his 31 saves, but he will pitch better than his 4.73 ERA indicates.  Although it's theoretically possible that Sherrill can serve as the Mets closer, he would be much better suited as a 7^th inning set-up man.  With lefties Scott Schoenweis and Pedro Feliciano already in New York, Sherrill won't go back to being a specialist like he was in Seattle.   Expect his ERA to go down to around 3.60 with another year of throwing at least an inning per outing rather than just facing one or two batters like he did with the Mariners.  It's possible he may also pitch better in the less pressurized role of a 7^th inning set-up man.  I don't think that Sherrill's bad stats were completely because of facing a lot right-handed batters.  He had a 3.68 ERA through June.  I think it was just the new workload that ultimately pulled Sherrill's numbers down.

 

Luke Scott can be Mets starting left fielder in 2009, and provide more power and good on-base skills.  Nick Evans didn't hit much in 2009, and is probably better suited too start 2009 in Buffalo (AAA).  Dan Murphy hopefully can make a clean transition to second base for 2009.  Murphy's switch is crucial as this deal only gets done if the AFL experiment is successful and the Mets are confident Murphy is ready to take over for Luis Castillo next year.  This whole trade seems much better when you realize Luke Scott is essentially replacing Luis Castillo in the Mets lineup.

As I wrote earlier, the Mets probably will feel a little antsy about giving up Junior Guerra (left)who's a top relief prospect, but only him and Dillon Gee (right) are the big prospects that the Mets could have expected to contribute with the big club in the next two years. 

 

Beaulac is a middle of the road prospect who had a nice, but relatively short 2008 season after signing.  Despite making six relief appearances this year, Beaulac is obviously better suited as a starter, seeing how he dominated in college in that role.  He should begin the year in the Class A Advanced Frederick rotation.  Gee is by far the best prospect the O's acquire in this deal.  He had a sensational year at St. Lucie (A+), posting a 3.25 ERA, and then posted an even better 1.33 ERA in his four starts with Double-A Binghamton.  Gee is 23 years old entering '09, and was only drafted last year.  It's still smart to take it easy with Gee and let him pile up at least 16 starts in Bowie before they could possibly called him up to Triple-A.  And that leaves the very last player, Shawn Bowman.  Ahh, Shawn Bowman. 

If not injuries, he would probably would have been traded already because he's not quite on the same level as the Mets current third baseman.  Although he's no David Wright, he's still shown he's a talented player, but it all about staying healthy.  How injury-prone is he?  Well, 2008 was his fourth year at the same level (A-Advanced), but it certainly wasn't completely his fault.  Here are his number of games played from every season since 2005:

 

2005: 87

2006: 32

2007: 6

2008: 54

 

Yes, every single one of those seasons was in St. Lucie except for the last, in which he played for about a month in Double-A Binghamton, and struggled (.626 OPS, 29 games).  The important thing about 2008, for Bowman, was how well he hit with St. Lucie.  He had a .369 OBP with 2 home runs and .485 SLG in 97 at-bats.  That should put him on track to be Bowie's (AA) starting third baseman in 2009. 

 

So, with all of this talk about the Orioles farm system, I realized that the Orioles starting pitching situation is actually pretty impressive.  After all these trades take place, the Orioles minor league affiliates' rotations will look like this:

 

(Note: I think the major league starting rotation consists of Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, and Hayden Penn)

 

Frederick - A+

1. Brian Matusz

2. Zachary Britton

3. Timothy Bascom

4. Eric Beaulac

5. Chris Salberg

6. Luis Noel

 

Bowie - AA

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Dillon Gee

3. Kyle Schmidt

4. Brandon Erbe

5. Chorye Spoone

6. Nathan Nery

 

Norfolk - AAA

1. Chris Tillman

2. David Hernandez

3. Brad Bergesen

4. Jason Berken

5. Zach Clark

 

Yes, I realize that Frederick and Bowie have rotations of six, but it's worth cutting down on starts then to send a pitcher (ex. Luis Noel, Chris Salberg) that has a bright future as a starting pitcher to the bullpen, just because you have five other pitchers better than him.  You never want to have your good depth of talent to derail a player's career.

 

So, to wrap it all up, the Orioles get to reduce their salary even more, so they can sign core players like Nick Markakis, Chris Ray, and maybe even Matt Wieters.  Plus, the extra money can also go to signing their top draft picks next year.  The Mets upgrade their bullpen and lineup, the Brewers finally get a true third baseman, and the Indians get a huge impact bat that may send them over the hump of the Twins or White Sox. 

 

There is a lot to agree with and a lot to disagree with in this post, so let me hear it ALL.  Good or bad.

 

On a currently related issue, did anyone else notice Akinori Iwamura trying to shove the game ending ball of the NLCS into his back pocket, struggling with sticking it in, and then just screwing it, and jumping into the celebration pile.  That gave me a little smile... here's the video.

Leave Gregg Zaun and Rod Barajas alone; promote Brian Jeroloman and Curtis Thigpen

 

The Blue Jays need to decide whether they are going to re-sign Gregg Zaun, and pick up the 2009 option on Rod Barajas's contract. 

The Jays should do neither, and move on with new catchers.   If I were Cito Gaston, Brian Jeroloman (24) and Curtis Thigpen (26) would be the two catchers that would start the regular season.   I'm aware of the awful season Thigpen experienced, but it's better to let Thigpen rebound, than paying Barajas $2.5 million next year.  Jeroloman (right) doesn't offer that much power, but he can certainly hit, as he had a .396 OBP in New Hampshire (AA), and a .421 OBP with Class A Advanced Dunedin in 2007.

 

As for Thigpen , he had a solid year at Syracuse in 2007, with 3 dingers, and a .348 OBP in 50 games.  He got called up to Toronto where he struggled (.294 OBP, 0 HR), but was expected to make a serious contribution in 2008.  Unfortunately, it was a different story.  He started back in Syracuse, and he only managed a measly .267 OBP with three homers in 361 at-bats.   I still believe Thigpen can turn out to be a solid backup catcher in the major leagues.  So, if given a chance to play behind Jeroloman, Curtis will be able to either prove me wrong or right next year.   I'm confident he can rebound from his tough 08 campaign.

 

Trade Shawn Camp to the Red Sox for Zak Farkes

Trade Jason Frasor to the Angels for Sean Rodriguez

 

Camp (below) and Frasor were both valuable to the Blue Jays in 2008, but with the depth of the Toronto bullpen, there are both the odd men out of the 2009 bullpen. 

The 09 pen is going to consist of B.J. Ryan, Jeremy Accardo, Brandon League, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Brian Tallet, and Brian Wolfe.  I truthfully have no idea what will become of Casey Janssen.  It's just my gut intuition that tells me they should hang onto him.  And also because, well, he's really good. 

Anyway, unless someone gets injured, the Jays are going to need to trade Camp and Frasor, as they are both too good for AAA.   Frasor has a much higher trade value than Camp, but both are going to fetch prospects of a reasonable quality.  

I think the perfect trade involving Camp would be going to the Red Sox for third base prospect Zak Farkes.   Farkes (right) isn't that big of a prospect, but he plays a position that Toronto doesn't have a lot of depth in, plus he provides some power.  I'd say Farkes has the potential to at 20 home runs a year, and maintain an acceptable .OBP, although it will never to be above average.  Farkes isn't a huge acquisition, but remember, it's Shawn Camp he's getting traded for.

 

The Frasor trade is a much higher impact deal.  Frasor (left) can fill the role of the 6^th inning set-up man/middle reliever, similar to his role with Toronto.  If K-Rod actually stays in LA, then Frasor's role will lessen, but seeing the small odds of that possibility, Frasor should only be behind Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, and ex-teammate Justin Speier in the bullpen pyramid. 

 

If this deal is made, the Jays suddenly have their 2009 starting shortstop.  Sean Rodriguez crushed the ball in his 66-game stint with AAA Salt Lake.  Here his stats:

G     OBP     AB     HR     RBI     SB     BB     SO     SLG     OPS

66   .397    248    21      52       4       29      45    .645   1.042

 

Yes, he struggled mightily with the Angels:

 

G     OBP     AB     HR     RBI     SB     BB     SO     SLG     OPS

59   .276    167     3        10      3       14     55     .317     .593

Yet, he's still only 24 years old and has a very high upside.  In fact, the more I look at Rodriguez (below), the more I think about how much better he is than Jason Frasor.   I still consider this an even trade for both clubs involved, though.  The Angels could use one more arm in the bullpen; an arm just like Jason Frasor.

With former first rounder Kevin Ahrens moving to third base permanently (he had a bad first season anyway), the Jays have zero shortstop prospects.  With Rodriguez at short, the Jays wouldn't have to play John McDonald or Marco Scutaro everyday and let the new acquisition play up to his full potential in the majors.  I'm sure that the Pacific Coast League helped his power numbers a little, yet Rodriguez still has 20-homer power.  If demoted, I would have been slightly interesting to how Rodriguez's power numbers held up in the more pitcher friendly International League.  That small thought was shot down when the Blue Jays moved their Triple-A affiliate from Syracuse to Las Vegas, but that's no big deal.  Rodriguez should, without a doubt, be the starting shortstop in Toronto.  That it is of course, if this trade actually happens.